Drought Worsens In Western Third Of The U.S., Few Areas Improve

Moving through late summer, many areas of the U.S. saw increasing areas of dryness and drought during the past week, with the western third of the nation particularly hard-hit. However, there were a few areas where welcome rain brought better conditions.

West
In Montana, heavy precipitation (one to locally multiple inches in most areas) prompted significant areas of improvement across northern and some parts of western Montana. In contrast, a few weeks of deficient rainfall and above-normal temperatures prompted deterioration in D1 to D3 conditions across southwestern Montana, several swaths across Utah, and other areas in the central Rockies. The Pacific northeast remains hard-hit by drought, with more than 95-percent of Washington state in some form of drought, and over 85-percent of Idaho in drought. In other parts of the West Region, dryness and drought were unchanged compared to last week. Outside the northern tier of the Region, very little precipitation was reported outside several tenths to about an inch in southeastern Arizona. The proportion of rangelands in poor or very poor condition increased in the last 5 weeks from 32 to 49 percent in Utah, from 22 to 44 percent in Washington, and from 10 to 34 percent in Idaho. Over half of the Washington spring wheat crop is in poor or very poor condition compared to just 17 percent in early July. During this period, the proportion of Montana spring wheat in poor or very poor condition increased from 37 to 47 percent. USDA also indicated that 53 percent of the Washington barley crop is in poor or very poor condition, compared to just 14 percent in early July.

High Plains
Rainfall varied in intensity across the High Plains Region once again this week, with abundant rainfall amounts falling on much of North Dakota, southern Nebraska, and some spots in Kansas leading to improved conditions, especially across northern North Dakota.  In contrast, less precipitation allowed for areas of drought intensification for the second consecutive week in central and western parts of both Colorado and Wyoming. A sizeable swath of northwestern Colorado deteriorated into exceptional drought (D4), and D2 to D3 conditions expanded in other areas over and near the higher elevations in western parts of the High Plains Region.  In Colorado, 19 percent of the corn crop is in poor or very poor condition (up from just 1 percent in early July) while in Nebraska, one-third of the oat crop is in poor or very poor condition (up from 5 percent in early July). Dry conditions have resulted in High to Very High wildfire danger for most of Wyoming and across western Colorado. 

Midwest
Conditions varied substantially across the Region last week. Heavy rains doused much of Iowa and significant parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan last week. A few inches to nearly one foot of rain pounded much of the southern tier of Wisconsin and several swaths in other parts of these areas. Meanwhile, more-scattered moderate to locally heavy amounts were observed in other parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota as well as portions of the western Lower Peninsula of Michigan, the northern and western parts of Missouri, and northwestern Illinois. In contrast, rainfall was light and patchy to isolated at best farther east, including most of Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio. Much of the heaviest rain fell on areas already out of dryness and drought, so improvement was limited to parts of northern Minnesota and northwestern Illinois while persisting or increasing dryness was more common farther south and east, especially over southern Missouri and adjacent areas, plus portions of the eastern and southern Great Lakes region. USDA indicated that the proportion of Michigan covered by short or very short topsoil moisture increased from 21-percent to 52-percent over the last 5 weeks.

South
Patches of moderate to heavy rain were observed over southernmost Louisiana and adjacent Texas, much of the Red River (south) Valley, the southern Texas Panhandle, and the northern tier of Oklahoma. Other areas received just scattered to isolated showers that did not cause on changes to existing areas of dryness. This led to large areas of Abnormal Dryness (D0) across much of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee. USDA indicated that short or very short topsoil moisture covered 60 percent of Tennessee and 80 percent of Arkansas (up from 18 and 39 percent, respectively, in early July). The proportion of the Tennessee cotton crop in poor or very poor condition increased from 12 percent in early July to 26 percent last week. Farther south and west, dryness and drought were essentially unchanged across New Mexico and most of Texas. Moderate to extreme drought (D1 to D3) remains across southern and western New Mexico, and in far southwest Texas. But most of the Lone Star State has much better conditions and is drought-free.

Southeast
The rainfall pattern varied sharply across the Region last week. Moderate to heavy rain, with amounts of 3 to 5 inches in some areas, soaked the Piedmont and adjacent Appalachians of the Carolinas, far southern Virginia, the coastal Carolinas, eastern Georgia, peninsular Florida, and the immediate central Gulf Coast. Lesser amounts from one-half to locally over 2 inches were reported in most other locations across Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and interior southern Louisiana. Other areas were drier with little or no precipitation reported, specifically across northern Virginia, the southernmost Appalachians, northwestern Georgia, and most locations across Alabama and Mississippi. The heavy rains brought an end to abnormal dryness across almost all the Carolinas in addition to parts of central and southwestern Georgia, and parts of northern and peninsular Florida. In southernmost Florida, extreme drought (D3) persisted in southeastern Broward County, but D0 to D2 conditions improved somewhat in other parts of this area. In contrast, lesser amounts of rain fell in a band from Polk County southward through DeSoto County, where increasing moisture deficits led to the introduction of moderate drought (D1).  Meanwhile, abnormally dry (D0) conditions persisted and expanded across significant parts of Mississippi and Alabama.  Most areas across Alabama and Mississippi have seen very low rainfall totals for the past 4 to 5 weeks following at least 1 to 2 months of near- to above-normal rainfall. According to USDA, topsoil moisture is short or very short across 59 percent of Mississippi (up from 31 percent in early July) and 27 percent of Alabama (up from 9 percent). Meanwhile, in South Carolina, the coverage of short or very short topsoil moisture declined from 35 percent in early July to 22 percent this week.

Northeast
Most of the Northeast saw little or no rainfall this week.  There were just a few small areas of moderate to heavy rain in parts of upstate New York, southern Vermont, and a few adjacent sites. As a result, precipitation deficits persisted or increased. The warm and dry conditions across most of the Northeast Region allowed for broad expansion and intensification of dryness and drought. Moderate drought was introduced across southern Maine, continued to affect Cape Cod, and expanded slightly in portions of far western and northern New York. Abnormally dry (D0) conditions broadly expanded across central Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont, much of Upstate New York, and several patches across Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, and eastern West Virginia. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), topsoil was short or very short of moisture across two-thirds of Maine (up from 3 percent 5 weeks ago), three-quarters of Vermont (from 18 percent in early July), two-thirds of New York (up from 15 percent), 30 percent of Pennsylvania (from 12 percent), and more than half of Maryland (from 22 percent).

Looking Ahead
From August 14 to 18, heavy rain (2 to locally 5 inches) is forecast in the higher elevations and coastal sections of Washington and Oregon, and from the eastern Upper Mississippi Valley through much of the Great Lakes. At least several tenths of an inch of rain, with isolated totals near 2 inches, in areas commonly affected by the late summer and autumn monsoon in the Southwest and higher elevations of central Colorado. Similar amounts are anticipated in the Lower Mississippi Valley, Gulf Coast states, interior Southeast, South Atlantic States, coastal Northeast, northern Plains, eastern Great Lakes, and lower elevations of Washington and western Oregon. Light to locally moderate amounts potentially approaching an inch are expected in the Ohio Valley and scattered locations across the Rockies. Meanwhile, little or no precipitation is forecast across California, the Great Basin, the northern Rockies, the central and southern Plains, and the Middle Mississippi Valley. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Storm Erin to move northwestward while strengthening into a major hurricane by the end of the period. Most guidance keeps the system east of the East Coast, but there is a lot of uncertainty in any forecast hurricane track 3 to 5 days in advance. High waves, rough surf, and riptides may impact the Atlantic beaches even if the storm stays well out to sea. Generally above normal should prevail from the Appalachians westward through central and northern sections of the Plains and Rockies, as well as the coastal Northeast. Temperatures should be closer to normal over the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, and southern portions of the Plains and Rockies. Cooler than normal weather should be confined to the Great Basin and West Coast States.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid August 19-23, 2025) features significant uncertainty in the precipitation outlook. Odds for above-normal precipitation exceeding 40 percent are found in much of southern Arizona and the northern High Plains, and nowhere else. There are, however, broad areas with slightly enhanced chances (33 to 40 percent) for wetter than normal wetter; specifically, from the portions of the Southwest typically affected by the late summer and autumn monsoon through the central and northern High Plains, and the northern Great Plains. Similar odds favoring above-normal precipitation also prevail across the southern Great Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the interior Southeast, the Carolinas, the mid-Atlantic, and the coastal Northeast. Meanwhile, odds lean towards below-normal rainfall in the Northwest and the northern Intermountain West, the Great Lakes, and the St. Lawrence Valley and adjacent New England. Meanwhile, warmer than normal weather is favored over the western half and southeastern quarter of the Contiguous United States, with odds reaching 60 to 80 percent in the central and northern High Plains, the Rockies, and the Florida Peninsula. Subnormal temperatures are favored over the eastern Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast.

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Source: U.S. Drought Monitor