Heavy Rains Allow For Drought Improvement Except For The West

Despite mostly dry, warm weather, scattered heavy rains allowed for some improvements to the drought depiction last week. The exception was the West, where widespread degradation to drought and dryness occurred.

West
While cooler than normal temperatures prevailed this week, a dry weather pattern continued across most of the West last week. However, towards the end of the forecast period, scattered heavy rains fell in parts of New Mexico.

The most widespread degradation occurred in the Northwest, where abnormal dryness expanded across Washington, Oregon, Idaho, northern California and northern Nevada. Moderate drought (D1) increased in size across northeastern Oregon and central Oregon. Severe drought (D2) also grew across western Montana northern Idaho into northeastern Oregon along with northeastern Utah, with extreme drought (D3) growing slightly in size in northwestern Montana.

The scattered heavy rains allowed for some very localized improvements to extreme drought (D3) in southeastern New Mexico. Otherwise, the rest of the region remained status quo.
 
High Plains
Scattered heavy rains fell in parts of the High Plains last week, while other areas were plagued by unseasonably hot, dry weather. Heavier rain occurred in Nebraska and Kansas, especially in eastern and central areas. Southeastern Wyoming also picked up beneficial rain last week and over the past few weeks. It was drier elsewhere, especially northern Colorado and western Wyoming.

There were some very localized improvements to abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1) in northern Nebraska. Abnormal dryness to severe drought (D0-D2) also shrunk in size across southeastern Wyoming.

Meanwhile, moderate to extreme drought (D1-D3) increased throughout western Colorado. The Dakotas remained status quo this week. Abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1) grew slightly across northern Kansas, western Wyoming, northeastern Colorado, and southern Nebraska.  In Nebraska, over 50-percent of the state is in moderate drought (D1), and 22-percent of the state has severe drought (D2)
 
Midwest
Despite the unusually hot temperatures last week, widespread improvements occurred to most of the Midwest last week. Heavy rains fell over the region, with some rain amounts locally more than 5 inches!

Abnormal dryness to moderate drought (D0-D1) improved across northern Indiana, northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, northern Missouri, most of Iowa and northeastern Minnesota.

West-central Missouri, central Illinois and southern Michigan, however, did see some degradation this week. Abnormal dryness grew in size for parts of the Kansas City, Mo., Urbana-Champaign, Ill., and Grand Rapids, Mich. areas, as the result of growing precipitation deficits and declining soil moisture.

Ohio and Kentucky remain free of drought and dryness.
 
South
Rainfall was mixed across the South last week. Heavy rain fell in parts of central and northern Oklahoma, Tennessee, northeastern Arkansas, Mississippi and the western Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. It was generally dry and warm for central and south-central Texas last week.

Despite the dry weather, there were some small improvements to abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1) across southern Texas. However, a small increase in abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1) occurred in the Midland-Odessa area due to growing short-term precipitation deficits and declining soil moisture and streamflows.

Outside of Texas, the rest of the South remained free of drought and dryness.
 
Southeast
While some heavier rain fell, most of the Southeast recorded a dry and unseasonably warm week of weather. The scattered heavier rains occurred across the Florida Peninsula and in western Georgia and Alabama. Before this week, conditions had been very wet throughout the Southeast outside of Florida, so drought and dryness generally remained status quo this week.

Heavier rain fell across the Florida Peninsula, mainly along the west coast of Florida. Moderate to severe drought (D1-D2) was trimmed across west-central and southwestern Florida. Conversely, the heaviest rain missed the eastern side of Florida. Notably, a localized area of short- and long-term extreme drought (D3) developed near Palm Beach due to growing precipitation deficits and increasing fire danger.
 
Northeast
A warm but overall soggy week was seen throughout the Northeast last week. Scattered rainfall amounts over 2 inches fell in parts of Maryland, western Pennsylvania, central New York and Maine.

Most areas are already free of drought and dryness in the Northeast. Long-term moderate drought (D1) did decrease slightly in coverage west of Baltimore after recent rain amounts lessened long-term drought impacts there.
 
Looking Ahead (June 24th through June 30th)
A cold front will become stalled from the Rockies and Plains into the Northeast for most of the forecast period. This front will combine with moisture from the Gulf along with fast-moving weather disturbances. This will translate into daily chances for showers and thunderstorms for most areas along and east of the Rocky Mountains.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will also be a possibility. The best chance would occur over the north-central U.S. early in the week, then in the Great Lakes and Northeast towards the end of the week. Slow-moving, repeated rounds of rain will also be likely at times. The slow nature of the rain combined with already saturated soils in many spots could trigger flooding concerns.

At the same time, the Western U.S. will be under the influence of high pressure for most of the coming week. This allows for dry weather and a warming trend.

Overall, expect widespread to extensive improvements to drought and abnormally dry conditions throughout the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. The West, however, will likely continue to see drought and abnormally dry conditions worsen.

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Source: U.S. Drought Monitor