Major Hurricane Erin Still Churning in West-Central Atlantic

Erin continues to churn as a major hurricane in the west-central Atlantic. While it looks to avoid a direct hit on any land mass, impacts will still be felt across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas to the U.S. East Coast, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada.

As of 2 p.m. AST/EDT, Hurricane Erin was located near 21.7 N and 68.5 W, or about 275 miles north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and 165 miles east of Grand Turk Island. Erin is packing top winds of 125 mph, making it a Major Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. It is moving west-northwest at 13 mph. Erin’s minimum central pressure remains at 946 mb, or 27.94 inches of mercury.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch has been posted for the southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane Erin will begin to slow down as it treks towards the west-northwest today, before moving to the north on Monday and Tuesday. On this forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas through Monday. Fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next few days as the inner core undergoes structural changes. However, it will remain a major hurricane.

The outer rain bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall today across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are likely, with isolated totals up to 8 inches. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding are likely, along with landslides.

Tropical storm-force winds (winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected across the Turks and Caicos Islands starting tonight, which will spread to the southeastern Bahamas by Monday and the central Bahamas by Tuesday. The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico could also see gusty squalls today.

Erin is also expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the U.S. East Coast, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada over the next several days.

After Tuesday, there is more uncertainty regarding the exact track and strength of Erin. The most likely scenario would be for Erin to take a turn to the northeast for the second half of the work week. This path would most likely keep the center of Erin offshore, interests along the North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts as well as Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk of strong winds associated with the outer rain bands during the middle part of the week.

Regardless of whether this system makes landfall or not, now is the time to prepare for the hurricane season. Have a “go-to” bag ready with chargers, water, food and other necessities. Also, take the time to scope out multiple evacuation routes, in case your preferred one is traffic-jammed or blocked.

Erin is the fifth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, and the first hurricane and major hurricane. It briefly achieved Category 5 status on Saturday morning, with peak sustained winds of 160 mph. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is now the fourth straight season to feature a Category 5 storm, with two occurring last year – hurricanes Beryl and Milton.

Erin is one of the fastest-strengthening Atlantic hurricanes on record, and potentially the fastest intensification rate for any storm earlier than September 1st. Rapid intensification is when a hurricane gains at least 35 mph of wind speed in at least 24 hours. Erin went from a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 75 mph around midday on Friday to a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 160 mph just over 24 hours later!