Severe Storm Risk - Hialeah Gardens, FL

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SUMMARY Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Central/Southern Florida Peninsula Late morning surface analysis places a cold front near the I-4 corridor across the central portion of the Peninsula, with upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints south of the boundary. A mid-level vorticity maximum over MS/AL this morning is forecast to continue east-southeastward through the base of a larger-scale eastern US trough and eventually reach the Gulf Stream east of GA and southwestward to the southern 1/3 of the Peninsula by early Sunday morning. As this impulse progresses towards the region, the aforementioned front will slowly move south. This boundary, a residual outflow boundary, and an east-coast sea breeze will help focus thunderstorm development and a potential severe risk this afternoon. Ample heating of the moist boundary layer beneath a weak cap, which will continue to erode by early to mid afternoon, will result in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level flow will likely remain veered and relatively weak, but 30+ kt shear in the 700-300 mb layer will support some updraft organization. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the 18-20z period with a some of the stronger storms potentially being capable of 55-65 mph gusts and 1 to 1.75 inch diameter hail. Short-term CAM guidance suggests the most concentrated corridor for severe may extend from the north side of Lake Okeechobee, where an agitated cumulus field is developing along the diffuse outflow boundary, southward into Broward/Palm Beach counties. Convection is forecast to eventually move east into the Atlantic this evening with the severe risk diminishing. Oklahoma Weak MUCAPE should develop by this afternoon/early evening across parts of OK near a surface trough. A low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within broad cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS may support isolated thunderstorm development across this area in tandem with peak afternoon heating. Instability should remain too weak to support an organized severe threat with this activity, although locally strong/gusty winds and small hail appear possible given steepened low-level lapse rates and favorably strong deep-layer shear. Northern California A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-northeastward today across northern CA and vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft associated with this shortwave trough combined with generally 40 to mid 50s surface dewpoints and filtered daytime heating should promote around 500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE over this region by mid to late afternoon. While a couple of stronger thunderstorms may form across this area, the overall severe threat should tend to be limited by the weak instability.