Severe Storm Risk - Hypoluxo, FL

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SUMMARY Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Central/Southern Florida Peninsula A cold front will settle slowly southward today across the central FL Peninsula as large-scale upper troughing persists over the eastern CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will continue to advance eastward over FL through the morning and eventually offshore by this evening. The surface front over the central FL Peninsula has been reinforced by overnight/early morning convection. This front, along with the Atlantic Coast sea breeze, should provide a focus for additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. Daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass coupled with relatively cool mid-level temperatures (around -10 to -12C at 500 mb) will likely support weak to moderate instability by mid afternoon. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain weak and mostly parallel to the surface front, modestly enhanced mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear should foster some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon. Both isolated severe hail and occasional damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores, before convection eventually focuses offshore by this evening. Oklahoma Weak MUCAPE should develop by this afternoon/early evening across parts of OK near a surface trough. A low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within broad cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS may support isolated thunderstorm development across this area in tandem with peak afternoon heating. Instability should remain too weak to support an organized severe threat with this activity, although locally strong/gusty winds and small hail appear possible given steepened low-level lapse rates and favorably strong deep-layer shear. Northern California A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-northeastward today across northern CA and vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft associated with this shortwave trough combined with generally 40 to mid 50s surface dewpoints and filtered daytime heating should promote around 500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE over this region by mid to late afternoon. While a couple of stronger thunderstorms may form across this area, the overall severe threat should tend to be limited by the weak instability.