Severe Storm Risk - Lake Clarke Shores, FL

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA SUMMARY Isolated severe thunderstorms yielding a risk for large hail and localized severe gusts may occur this afternoon and evening across parts of south Florida and Oklahoma. Oklahoma A mid-level disturbance near the CO-KS border this morning will quickly move east to the Ozarks by mid evening. Glancing large-scale ascent associated with this feature and associated low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to isolated to scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening from near the Red River into the Ozarks. A stalled cold front paralleling the I-44 corridor will likely serve as a focus for thunderstorm development as an axis of weak buoyancy develops within a narrow moist plume (50s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from north TX into central OK. Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs and upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, supporting an environment potentially capable of a couple stronger storms that could yield a risk for hail/wind during the 22-04z period. South Florida A weak mid-level trough over the eastern Gulf will move east-southeastward across the FL Peninsula by early evening. Accompanying weak ascent with this upper feature and differential heating near a frontolytic boundary will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across parts of south FL. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is probable by early to mid afternoon. Weak flow in the surface-3km layer will limit overall hodograph length beneath 50-kt westerly flow at 300 mb. A couple of the stronger thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally severe hail and perhaps gusts approaching 60 mph.