Severe Storm Risk - Lauderdale-by-the-Sea, FL

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SUMMARY A few instances of severe hail are likely across central Oklahoma into the evening hours. An instance or two of hail or damaging gusts may still occur over southern parts of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. 20Z Update The primary change made to this outlook was to add a Slight risk to portions of OK, while also expanding the Marginal risk to the south and west across southern portions of the state. Confidence is increasing for the initiation of a few supercell thunderstorms across central OK this afternoon ahead of a frontal boundary. Current OK Mesonet surface observations depict a tongue of 59-60 F surface dewpoints, which are advecting northward across the southern portions of the state, toward the OKC metropolitan area. At least some mid-level clouds persist over and around the metro, suggesting that low-level moisture may not appreciably mix out through the remainder of the afternoon. As such, the current moisture profile, beneath 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield thin surface-based buoyancy profiles, with 1000/500 ML/SBCAPE by afternoon peak heating. Current INX/TLX VAD profiles depict hodographs with modest 0-3 km curvature, and RAP forecast soundings suggest that elongated mid-level hodographs should persist into the evening hours, resulting in appreciable deep-layer shear for supercell structures. While buoyancy will be relatively meager overall, a few hail reports at least in the 1-2 inch diameter range appears plausible this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with an instance or two of hail/strong wind gusts possible with thunderstorms developing off of sea-breeze boundaries over far southern FL over the next few hours.