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Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts by Basin | WeatherBug

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa is pushing into the Atlantic Ocean after passing through Bermuda.

After raging through Jamaica on Tuesday and Cuba Wednesday, Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa is quickly pushing into the Atlantic Ocean after passing near Bermuda on Thursday. 
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As of 11 a.m. EDT, Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa was located near 39.0N and 60.5W, or about 520 miles north-northeast of Bermuda. Melissa is now categorized as a powerful Post-Tropical Cyclone, packing top sustained winds of 85 mph. It is moving northeast at 48 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 973 mb, or 28.74 inches of mercury. 
 
Not nearly as strong as it was the past few days, Melissa downgrades from a hurricane to a post-tropical cyclone as it slides away from the Bahamas. It brought several inches of rain, strong winds, and a damaging storm surge to the island. Melissa is now moving away from Bermuda. 
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Despite passing over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, Melissa continue to lose its tropical characteristics and merge with a cold front, deeming a downgrade to Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa as of 11 a.m EDT. Tonight and Saturday morning will see the remnants of Melissa pass excruciatingly close to the eastern end of Newfoundland and will likely bring wind and rain to the eastern part of the island. 
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Melissa will go down in the record books as one of the strongest hurricanes ever to make landfall. It pierced ashore near Black River, Jamaica, on Tuesday afternoon with winds of 185 mph. Cuba then felt its wrath on Wednesday morning, although the storm was &ldquo;only&rdquo; a Category 2 hurricane by that point. At least 36 people have been killed between Cuba and Jamaica, although some parts of Jamaica remain unreachable at the moment. 
 
It is important to still be prepared for hurricane season despite it being the end of October. The Atlantic hurricane season runs through November 30th. On average, there are typically two or three named storms in October, with the potential for them to reach hurricane intensity. Most storms tend to develop in the Gulf and Caribbean during October as winds increase in the central Atlantic. Despite the drop in storm frequency compared to September, the Atlantic hurricane season can remain active and dangerous throughout October and November.&nbsp; 
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The U.S. has been fortunate so far, with only Tropical Storm Chantal making landfall. It is still crucial to be prepared for impacts from a tropical system regardless. Have a &ldquo;to-go&rdquo; bag ready with chargers, water, food and other necessities. Also, take the time to scope out multiple evacuation routes, in case your preferred one is traffic-jammed or blocked.&nbsp;

Melissa Set to Shift North of Bermuda

Lorenzo will struggle to organize as it stays over open water in the central Atlantic, posing no threat to land.

Lorenzo will struggle to organize as it stays over open water in the central Atlantic through this weekend, posing no threat to land. 
 
As of 5 a.m. EDT/AST, Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located near 17.3N and 44.1W, or about 1,330 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. It was packing top sustained winds of 60 mph and was moving to the northwest at 15 mph. Lorenzo&#39;s minimum central pressure was 1000 mb, or 29.53 inches of mercury. 
 
Lorenzo may attempt to gradually strengthen as it curves toward the north and then northeast through midweek, though confidence in its intensification remains low. By late week, the system should turn more eastward as a tropical storm. This might even fail to materialize due to dry air lurking nearby. Heading into the weekend, Lorenzo is expected to weaken and transition into a post-tropical system. 
 
Even though the calendar has flipped to October, it&rsquo;s important to remember that hurricane season doesn&rsquo;t officially end until November 30. Historically, October averages two to three named storms, and some can still reach hurricane strength. This time of year, tropical development tends to shift toward the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, where warmer waters and favorable atmospheric conditions persist, even as wind shear increases over the central Atlantic. While storm frequency typically drops after September, the threat remains very real as October and November can still produce dangerous and impactful systems. 
 
The U.S. has been fortunate so far this season, with only Tropical Storm Chantal making landfall. It is still crucial to be prepared for impacts from a tropical system regardless. Have a &ldquo;go-to&rdquo; bag ready with chargers, water, food, and other necessities. Also, take the time to scope out multiple evacuation routes, in case your preferred one is traffic-jammed or blocked.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Circles Around The Central Atlantic

Imelda will gradually weaken and become post-tropical as it speeds across the North Atlantic.

Imelda will gradually weaken and become post-tropical as it speeds across the North Atlantic. There are currently no direct threats to land. 
 
As of 11 a.m. AST, Hurricane Imelda was located near 33.2N and 59.5W, or about 315 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds continue to decrease to 75 mph, making it a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is moving to the east-northeast at 29 mph and has a minimum central pressure of 980 mb, or 28.94 inches of mercury. 
 
There are no longer any active watches or warnings in effect. 
 
Imelda should become post-tropical today as it gets swept up into the mid-latitude flow and moves over cooler waters. It will take a turn to the northeast this weekend, keeping it far away from land. 
 
Gusty winds will gradually subside across Bermuda today. There could also still be occasional rounds of moderate to heavy rain. Distant swells generated by Imelda are affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda and much of the U.S. East Coast. Swells from Imelda will also spread toward the Greater Antilles and the northern Leeward Islands on Friday and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening and rip current conditions. 
 
With the tropical season heating up, it&rsquo;s time to prepare for the season. Start organizing portable phone chargers, a radio, batteries, non-perishable food, water, and blankets into an evacuation kit now. While the weather is fair in your area, take the opportunity to scout out multiple evacuation routes from your area in case your preferred route is traffic-jammed or blocked. 
 
Check with WeatherBug throughout the season for the latest on the tropics.&nbsp;

Hurricane Imelda Moves Into Open Waters

Hurricane Humberto is a Category 1 storm as it moves through the Atlantic.

Hurricane Humberto weakens to a Category 1 storm in the western Atlantic, and it expects to lose its tropical characteristics later this morning. 
 
As of 5 a.m. AST, Humberto was located near 35.8N and 67.3W, or about 280 miles north-northwest of Bermuda. Its maximum sustained winds have decreased to 80 mph. Humberto is moving towards the northeast at 14 mph with a minimum central pressure of 979 mb or 28.91 inches of mercury. 
 
There are currently no watches or warnings in effect related to Humberto. 
 
Hurricane Humberto has made its expected northeastward turn through the open Atlantic. This path would have Humberto moving northeast of Bermuda today, with the center remaining well offshore. However, Humberto is expected to lose its tropical characteristics later this morning as it transforms into an extratropical storm, merging with an offshore frontal boundary. 
 
Despite no direct impacts to land and losing its hurricane status, its rough swells will still affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Bermuda. In addition, the East Coast will see rough swells associated with Humberto as well as Tropical Storm Imelda. These swells can trigger life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 
 
With the tropical season heating up, it&rsquo;s time to prepare for the season. Start organizing portable phone chargers, a radio, batteries, non-perishable food, water, and blankets into an evacuation kit now. While the weather is fair in your area, take the opportunity to scout out multiple evacuation routes from your area in case your preferred route is traffic-jammed or blocked. 
 
Check with WeatherBug throughout the season for the latest on the tropics.

Humberto Becoming Extratropical in West-Atlantic

Fernand continues to weaken as it moves through the northern Atlantic Ocean.

Fernand continues to weaken as it moves through the northern Atlantic Ocean. 
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As of 5 a.m. AST/EDT, Tropical Storm Fernand was located near 37.0N, 55.2W, or 635 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. The system has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 1005 mb or 29.68 inches of mercury. It is moving to the northeast at 14 mph. 
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As Fernand continues to move over colder waters, further weakening is expected today before dissipating on Wednesday.&nbsp; 
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We are coming very close to the peak of the hurricane season, which is climatologically the second week of September. If you haven&rsquo;t already, now is the time to prepare for the hurricane season. Have a &ldquo;go&rdquo; bag ready with chargers, water, food and other necessities. Also, take the time to scope out multiple evacuation routes, in case your preferred one is traffic-jammed or blocked.

Tropical Storm Fernand Weakening

Hurricane Erin has lost its tropical characteristics, but remains a very powerful storm in the west-central Atlantic.

Hurricane Erin has lost its tropical characteristics, but remains a very powerful storm in the west-central Atlantic. 
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As of 5 p.m. AST/EDT, Hurricane Erin was located near 40.0 N and 59.7 W, or about 605 miles north-northeast of Bermuda, and 375 miles south-southeast of Halifax, N.S., in Canada. Despite no longer being tropical, Erin is still packing top winds of 90 mph. It is moving northeast at 33 mph and has a minimum central pressure of 957 mb, or 28.26 inches of mercury. 
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As Erin has been moving across the Atlantic, a warm and cold front have developed from the storm&rsquo;s center. This is typically the last step in determining that a tropical storm is no longer tropical. That said, Erin&rsquo;s impact on shipping interests remains quite high. Its strong winds are likely to whip the ocean to 20 to 40 foot wave heights. 
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Closer to shore, the book isn&rsquo;t closed on Erin. The strong waves from the storm will likely cause rip currents throughout the weekend, making it dangerous to swim along the beaches of the Eastern Seaboard. High tide is likely to produce some coastal flooding, especially from the New Jersey shore to Maine. 
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Although Erin is now out of the picture, we are coming very close to the peak of the hurricane season. If you haven&rsquo;t already, now is the time to prepare for the hurricane season. Have a &ldquo;go&rdquo; bag ready with chargers, water, food and other necessities. Also, take the time to scope out multiple evacuation routes, in case your preferred one is traffic-jammed or blocked.

Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts by Basin